Urban growth modelling and social vulnerability assessment for a hazardous Kathmandu Valley

By 2050, Kathmandu Valley’s built-up area is projected to double to 352 km², with the most socially vulnerable villages accounting for 29% of this expansion—11 percentage points higher than today. Urban growth in high-risk zones, including 100-year and 1000-year floodplains as well as liquefaction-susceptible areas, will also surge significantly. The study combines global hazard models with the cellular-automata SLEUTH urban-growth simulation and a tailored social vulnerability index to map these risks, underscoring the urgent need for policy interventions to mitigate future hazards in rapidly developing regions.

Mesta, C., Cremen, G., & Galasso, C. (2022). Urban growth modelling and social vulnerability assessment for a hazardous Kathmandu Valley. Scientific Reports, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09347-x