Modelling fire occurrence at regional scale: does vegetation phenology matter?

Wildfires in the Cilento and Vallo di Diano National Park (southern Italy) exhibit distinct seasonal patterns linked to vegetation phenology, with fires occurring more frequently at sites where NDVI values deviate from regional averages. From May to October, fires prefer locations with lower NDVI, indicating reduced biomass availability, while November to April sees higher fire incidence in areas with elevated NDVI, suggesting increased fuel moisture and flammability. This study quantified these patterns over 2000–2013 using a habitat suitability model comparing multitemporal NDVI profiles at fire sites against the broader landscape. The findings underscore the critical role of seasonal vegetation dynamics in fire risk, offering a framework for integrating remote sensing with socioeconomic and physiographic data to enhance fire prevention strategies.

Bajocco, S., Guglietta, D., & Ricotta, C. (2015). Modelling fire occurrence at regional scale: does vegetation phenology matter? European Journal of Remote Sensing, 48(1), 763–775. https://doi.org/10.5721/eujrs20154842