Storm surge modelling in Venice: two years of operational results

A high-accuracy storm surge model for Venice, operational since 2016, demonstrates remarkable predictive precision under normal weather conditions. Using the Shallow Water Hydrodynamic Model (SHYFEM), researchers at CNR and ICPSM forecast sea levels in the Mediterranean Sea and Venice Lagoon with mean errors (Ē) and standard deviations (σ) of approximately 1 cm and 5 cm, respectively, within the first 24 hours. The model integrates atmospheric data from ECMWF and a neural-network correction module to refine predictions based on observed Adriatic sea levels. While accuracy slightly declines during storm surge events, this operational system provides critical support for safeguarding Venice's cultural heritage and natural environment by delivering reliable six-day forecasts every six hours.

Zampato, L., Bajo, M., Canestrelli, P., & Umgiesser, G. (2016). Storm surge modelling in Venice: two years of operational results. Journal of Operational Oceanography, 9(sup1), s46–s57. https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876x.2015.1118804