Reserve size, dispersal and population viability in wide ranging carnivores: the case of jaguars in Emas National Park, Brazil

A jaguar population within Emas National Park, Brazil, faces significant extinction risks of 70–90% without immigration due to its small and potentially isolated size. Using camera trapping data and spatially explicit capture-recapture models, researchers estimated a density of 0.17 jaguars per 100 km², lower than previous studies, suggesting demographic vulnerability. Matrix-based population simulations revealed that even minimal immigration could drastically reduce extinction risk, highlighting the critical need for habitat corridors to ensure dispersal and connectivity outside protected areas. This finding underscores broader challenges for large carnivore conservation in small reserves.

Finnegan, S. P., Galvez‐Bravo, L., Silveira, L., Tôrres, N. M., Jácomo, A. T. A., Alves, G. B., & Dalerum, F. (2020). Reserve size, dispersal and population viability in wide ranging carnivores: the case of jaguars in Emas National Park, Brazil. Animal Conservation, 24(1), 3–14. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1111/acv.12608