Conserving the Cerrado and Amazon biomes of Brazil protects the soy economy from damaging warming

Conserving the Cerrado and Amazon biomes in Brazil can significantly protect the soy economy from extreme heat, offering substantial economic value. The study estimates that lost soy revenue due to extreme heat from native vegetation loss between 1985 and 2012 reached $99 per hectare (in 2005 USD) for the 2012-2013 growing season. Projections suggest that by 2050, this value could increase by 25% to 95%, depending on agricultural density, rates of native vegetation loss, and climate change. The research combines empirical estimates of ecosystem conversion's influence on extreme heat, the impacts of extreme heat on agricultural yields, and regional land use data. The findings highlight that ecosystem conservation in these biomes can create considerable economic value for the soy sector by regulating extreme heat exposure.

Flach, R., Abrahão, G., Bryant, B., Scarabello, M., Soterroni, A. C., Ramos, F. M., Valin, H., Obersteiner, M., & Cohn, A. S. (2021). Conserving the Cerrado and Amazon biomes of Brazil protects the soy economy from damaging warming. World Development, 146, 105582. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105582