A dark scenario for Cerrado plant species: Effects of future climate, land use and protected areas ineffectiveness

A grim outlook for Cerrado plant species emerges from a study combining climate change and land use projections, revealing severe threats to biodiversity even under optimistic scenarios. By modeling the distribution of 1,553 Cerrado plant species across Bolivia, Brazil, and Paraguay, researchers found that agricultural expansion and greenhouse gas emissions will drastically reduce species ranges by 2050 and 2080, particularly in regions with the highest species richness. The current network of protected areas (PAs) proves ineffective in mitigating these losses, leaving most species highly vulnerable due to habitat fragmentation and inadequate protection. These findings underscore the urgent need for transboundary and national conservation strategies to address distinct impacts across countries.

Velazco, S. J. E., Villalobos, F., Galvão, F., & De Marco Júnior, P. (2019). A dark scenario for Cerrado plant species: Effects of future climate, land use and protected areas ineffectiveness. Diversity and Distributions, 25(4), 660–673. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12886