Seasonal components of freshwater runoff in Glacier Bay, Alaska: diverse spatial patterns and temporal change

Under the worst-case climate scenario (RCP 8.5), Glacier Bay's annual freshwater runoff is projected to increase by 13% from historical levels, shifting peak flows from July to late summer and early fall while transitioning from snowmelt- and ice-melt dominance to rain runoff. This study used SnowModel, a high-resolution distributed snow evolution model, to analyze seasonal runoff patterns (1979–2015) and project future changes (2070–2099). Historical mean annual runoff was 24.5 km³/year, with summer peaks driven by snowmelt supplemented by ice melt. Future scenarios revealed a flatter hydrograph, weaker summer flows, and higher winter flows, supported by a 24-year oceanographic CTD dataset. Spatial variability in glacier coverage, elevation, and landscape characteristics influenced these changes.

Crumley, R. L., Hill, D. F., Beamer, J. P., & Holzenthal, E. R. (2019). Seasonal components of freshwater runoff in Glacier Bay, Alaska: diverse spatial patterns and temporal change. The Cryosphere, 13(6), 1597–1619. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1597-2019