Model-based estimation of land subsidence in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

Land subsidence in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, is primarily driven by deep aquifer compaction due to excessive groundwater abstraction, with hotspots identified in the north and northeast peripheral areas. This study, the first of its kind, used a fully calibrated groundwater flow model coupled with surface-subsurface modeling to predict subsidence patterns. The findings indicate that changes in land cover within recharge areas significantly influence subsidence sensitivity, while the Melamchi water supply project demonstrates some mitigative effects. Although the analysis is preliminary and lacks field measurements, it provides critical insights for hazard prevention management, guiding future field investigations, monitoring networks, and groundwater data upgrades. However, a more comprehensive model incorporating clay subsidence is needed to fully assess the vulnerability of the densely populated central valley core.

Shrestha, P. K., Shakya, N. M., Pandey, V. P., Birkinshaw, S. J., & Shrestha, S. (2017). Model-based estimation of land subsidence in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 8(2), 974–996. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2017.1289985