The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article)

Storm surge forecasting in Venice faces increasing challenges due to the impending completion of the MOSE barriers, which require precise predictions for effective operation. This review identifies four key improvements to enhance forecast accuracy: better meteorological forecasts, ensemble forecasting, assimilation of water level measurements, and a multimodel approach. The study analyzes historic extreme events that posed significant forecasting difficulties, emphasizing the need to address uncertainty in surge prediction models. By integrating these advancements, the system can better protect Venice's population, economy, and cultural heritage from flood threats.

Umgiesser, G., Bajo, M., Ferrarin, C., Cucco, A., Lionello, P., Zanchettin, D., Papa, A., Tosoni, A., Ferla, M., Coraci, E., Morucci, S., Crosato, F., Bonometto, A., Valentini, A., Orlić, M., Haigh, I. D., Nielsen, J. W., Bertin, X., Fortunato, A. B., et al. (2021). The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 21(8), 2679–2704. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021