New regional-scale Classic Maya population density estimates and settlement distribution models through airborne lidar scanning

A groundbreaking study leveraging airborne lidar scanning has revealed that the Classic Maya civilization (300–900 CE) was far more populous and uniformly organized than previously believed. Analyzing a vast, 95,000 km² area of the Central Maya Lowlands—including the UNESCO World Heritage Site of Calakmul—the research estimates a population of 9.5 to 16 million people in this region alone. The findings challenge long-held assumptions about Maya urbanism by demonstrating a consistent spatial model for settlement and agriculture, linking elite and non-elite zones across both urban and rural landscapes. This uniform structure suggests efficient periodic interactions, reshaping our understanding of the civilization's political and economic dynamics. The study aggregates diverse lidar datasets, including reprocessed environmental data with enhanced visibility, to achieve unprecedented regional-scale insights.

Estrada-Belli, F., Canuto, M. A., Šprajc, I., & Fernandez-Diaz, J. C. (2025). New regional-scale Classic Maya population density estimates and settlement distribution models through airborne lidar scanning. Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports, 66, 105288. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jasrep.2025.105288