Extreme floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article)

Extreme floods in Venice, driven by a combination of astronomical tides, seiches, and atmospherically forced fluctuations such as storm surges and meteotsunamis, are projected to worsen significantly due to rising mean sea levels. The study reveals that while historical increases in flood frequency since the mid-19th century can be attributed to relative sea level rise, future projections indicate a substantial increase in extreme water heights by 2050 and 2100, depending on emission scenarios. For instance, under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), 1-in-100-year water height values could rise by 26–35 cm by 2050 and 53–171 cm by 2100, with local subsidence further exacerbating the situation. The research underscores the need for adaptive long-term planning of coastal defenses to address the wide range of plausible future water height extremes.

Lionello, P., Barriopedro, D., Ferrarin, C., Nicholls, R. J., Orlić, M., Raicich, F., Reale, M., Umgiesser, G., Vousdoukas, M., & Zanchettin, D. (2021). Extreme floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 21(8), 2705–2731. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021