The demise of the world's largest piedmont glacier: a probabilistic forecast

Sít' Tlein, the world's largest piedmont glacier spanning Alaska and Yukon, is projected to undergo significant mass loss due to climate imbalance. Using a data-constrained dynamical modeling approach, researchers forecasted that if current surface mass balance levels persist, Sít' Tlein could lose 323–444 km³ of ice by 2073 and 546–728 km³ by 2173. If historical trends continue, losses could reach 383–505 km³ by 2073 and 740–900 km³ by 2173. The study quantifies uncertainty using Bayesian methods, revealing that the glacier's piedmont lobe is likely to disappear over centuries, leading to substantial landscape and ecosystem changes.

Brinkerhoff, D. J., Tober, B. S., Daniel, M., Devaux-Chupin, V., Christoffersen, M. S., Holt, J. W., Larsen, C. F., Fahnestock, M., Loso, M. G., Timm, K. M. F., Mitchell, R. C., & Truffer, M. (2025). The demise of the world’s largest piedmont glacier: a probabilistic forecast. The Cryosphere, 19(6), 2321–2353. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2321-2025