Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction for the City of Venice

A novel ensemble prediction system (EPS) for storm surge forecasting in Venice, Italy, demonstrates that peak storm surges correspond with heightened uncertainty, which increases linearly over time. The study, based on 50 simulations and applied to 10 high-surge events in 2010, links this uncertainty directly to meteorological forcing fields rather than the quasi-linear dynamics of the surges, except for oscillations tied to the basin's 11-hour seiche period. Notably, the ensemble mean forecast (EMF) proved more robust and equally accurate as deterministic forecasts, offering a reliable tool for managing Venice's protection barriers.

Mel, R., & Lionello, P. (2014). Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction for the City of Venice. Weather and Forecasting, 29(4), 1044–1057. https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-13-00117.1