Surface water area in a changing climate: Differential responses of Alaska’s subarctic lakes

Alaska's subarctic lakes exhibit differential responses to climate change, with surface water area declining in 9 out of 32 ecological subsections, particularly in glaciated landscapes and regions underlain by ice-rich permafrost. The study, conducted across Kluane, Wrangell-St. Elias, Glacier Bay, and Tatshenshini-Alsek UNESCO World Heritage Sites, used the USGS Dynamic Surface Water Extent product to analyze trends from 2000–2019. While surface water increased in one subsection of Wrangell-St. Elias National Park, individual lake analysis revealed mixed changes within subsections, masking overall trends. Fluctuations in surface water area correlated with regional climate oscillations, suggesting that projected increases in temperature and precipitation may temporarily offset longer-term declines in some geomorphological settings. Overall, the greatest declines were observed in Denali National Park and Preserve's Glaciated Lowlands.

Rupp, D. L., & Larsen, A. S. (2022). Surface water area in a changing climate: Differential responses of Alaska’s subarctic lakes. PLOS Climate, 1(6), e0000036. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000036