Long-term adaptation pathways for Venice and its lagoon under sea-level rise

Under current greenhouse gas mitigation policies, Venice and its lagoon are likely to face hard limits within the 21st century due to sea-level rise (SLR). The study maps long-term adaptation pathways, revealing that the current strategy of mobile barriers and accommodation measures will become unsustainable. Alternative strategies, such as ring-dikes or permanent coastal dams, could preserve different combinations of environmental, heritage, and socio-cultural values but entail significant ecological and social transitions. Under extreme SLR scenarios, including potential Antarctic ice-sheet collapse, relocation of monuments or abandonment may become unavoidable by the 22nd century. Rapid mitigation could still prevent these drastic outcomes.

Lionello, P., Di Fant, V., Pasquier, U., Tosi, L., Cozannet, G. L., Nicholls, R. J., Cramer, W., Cremades, R., Giupponi, C., Hinkel, J., Sfriso, A., Teatini, P., Vafeidis, A. T., Umgiesser, G., & Haasnoot, M. (2026). Long-term adaptation pathways for Venice and its lagoon under sea-level rise. Scientific Reports, 16(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-39108-z