Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article)

Venice and its lagoon face significant threats from relative sea-level rise, with historical data showing an average increase of 2.5 mm/year over the past 150 years, largely driven by subsidence (contributing roughly half) and global sea-level rise. Recent tide-gauge analyses indicate a post-subsidence rate of 1.23 ± 0.13 mm/year from 1872 to 2019, with higher uncertainty in recent decades (+2.76 ± 1.75 mm/year between 1993 and 2019). Projections for 2100 suggest a likely rise of 32–62 cm under the RCP2.6 scenario and 58–110 cm under RCP8.5, with a potential high-end scenario of 180 cm due to rapid ice-sheet melting. Human-induced land motions, though unquantified in future projections, historically exacerbate risks. The study synthesizes recent research on local and regional processes, highlighting uncertainties tied to Mediterranean sea-level dynamics and atmospheric-oceanic variability.

Zanchettin, D., Bruni, S., Raicich, F., Lionello, P., Adloff, F., Androsov, A., Antonioli, F., Artale, V., Carminati, E., Ferrarin, C., Fofonova, V., Nicholls, R. J., Rubinetti, S., Rubino, A., Sannino, G., Spada, G., Thiéblemont, R., Tsimplis, M., Umgiesser, G., et al. (2021). Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 21(8), 2643–2678. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021