Modeled Impacts of LULC and Climate Change Predictions on the Hydrologic Regime in Belize

Future water quality in Belize could improve due to projected decreases in precipitation from climate change, which may reduce runoff. However, conservation-focused land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios show a 28% lower increase in runoff compared to business-as-usual and development scenarios by 2090, indicating that land management strategies can mitigate negative impacts on water quality. The study integrated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP-6) climate scenarios with hydrologic modeling to estimate runoff as a proxy for water quality, revealing a positive relationship between precipitation and runoff. Southern watersheds are expected to experience greater decreases in rainfall and runoff than northern ones, highlighting regional variations in vulnerability.

Martín-Arias, V., Evans, C., Griffin, R., Cherrington, E. A., Lee, C. M., Mishra, D. R., Gomez, N. A., Rosado, A., Callejas, I. A., Jay, J. A., & Rosado, S. (2022). Modeled Impacts of LULC and Climate Change Predictions on the Hydrologic Regime in Belize. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.848085