Publications
Morphology of the Belize barrier reef as indicator for Atlantic sea-level changes during the last glacial cycle
High-resolution bathymetric data of the Belize Barrier Reef reveals distinct paleo-sea-level positions, offering a detailed record of Atlantic sea-level changes during the last glacial cycle. The study identifies laterally persistent elevation clusters along ridge-crest lineaments and reef-wall notches, indicating periods of stable or slow sea-level change—such as a possible stillstand near ~20 m water depth during the early Holocene and prolonged late Pleistocene stillstands at ~80–105 m preceding the Last Glacial Maximum. The absence of vertical offsets between sectors suggests negligible neotectonic deformation, reinforcing the reef's role as a reliable archive for reconstructing late Quaternary sea-level dynamics.
Seagrass composition shifts and declines associated with reduced light, high phosphate, and elevated water temperatures in Turneffe Atoll Marine Reserve, Belize
A significant shift and decline in seagrass species composition at Turneffe Atoll Marine Reserve, Belize, has been documented between 2022 and 2025. Thalassia testudinum, a dominant seagrass species, showed steady declines while Syringodium filiforme became more prevalent. By 2025, shallow transects had lost all seagrass cover, attributed to reduced light availability, elevated phosphate concentrations, and water temperatures exceeding the thermal optimum for these species. This decline, observed even within a protected marine reserve, highlights the vulnerability of seagrass meadows to environmental stressors, with broader implications for the resilience of adjacent coral reef systems in the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System. The study used SeagrassNet global monitoring protocols to assess environmental and biological indicators, providing critical insights into the ecological impacts of shifting conditions on these foundational coastal ecosystems.
Thermal extremes and multi-stressor environmental variability across the Belize Barrier Reef System
A marked intensification of thermal stress, including more frequent and severe marine heatwaves (MHWs) and elevated Degree Heating Weeks (DHW), has been observed across the Belize Barrier Reef System (BBRS) from 1985 to 2025. The study, integrating multi-stressor environmental data such as sea surface temperature, ocean color, currents, wind, climate indices, and carbonate-system proxies, reveals spatially heterogeneous reef exposure. While all site clusters experienced bleaching-level DHW in 1998, the highest thermal stress occurred in 2023–2024, with some sites exceeding critical thresholds. Distinct environmental regimes were identified, with Site A facing acute multi-stressor conditions and Site I experiencing chronic stress. Carbonate-system proxies indicate increasing ocean acidification, though variability exists among sites. This integrated framework underscores the complex interplay of thermal stress, water quality, hydrodynamics, and climate change on reef resilience.
A Ten-Year Record Shows Warming Inside the Belize Barrier Reef Lagoon
A decade-long temperature record from the Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System reveals a steady increase in sea temperatures within its lagoon habitat between 2004 and 2014. This finding suggests that the unique biogeographic region, home to several endemic species, is experiencing significant warming—potentially due to global climate change—that could have long-term adverse effects on its marine biodiversity. The study analyzed in situ data collected from a coral reef offshore of Wee Wee Cay within the South Water Cay Marine Reserve, providing critical insights into how lagoon ecosystems differ from deeper offshore areas and highlighting their vulnerability to rising temperatures.
Century‐Long Records of Sedimentary Input on a Caribbean Reef From Coral Ba/Ca Ratios
Increasing sediment flux from land-use changes in Honduras is linked to the decline of coral skeletal extension in the southern Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System (MBRS). This finding emerges from a century-long analysis of barium/calcium (Ba/Ca) ratios in two Siderastrea siderea coral colonies, which serve as proxies for riverine discharge and sediment input. One colony, located on the forereef and influenced by Honduras' river systems, showed a 70% increase in Ba/Ca over time, correlating with a decline in linear extension—a key indicator of coral health. In contrast, a backreef colony, primarily affected by less populated regions of Belize, exhibited stable Ba/Ca levels and no decline in growth. The study suggests that sediment-related stressors, likely exacerbated by agricultural or deforestation activities, may be contributing to reef degradation in the southern MBRS.
9000 years of change in coral community structure and accretion in Belize reefs, western Atlantic
A 9000-year analysis of coral community structure and reef accretion in the Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System reveals that modern declines in acroporid corals, such as Acropora palmata and Orbicella spp., are not unprecedented. The study, based on 76 new U-series age dates, found that while competitive, fast-growing acroporids have remained abundant over millennia, there were centennial-scale gaps in their occurrence historically. Stress-tolerant corals dominated early Holocene successions but declined as environmental conditions improved post-inundation, while weedy corals increased in abundance. Reef accretion rates, averaging 3.36 meters per thousand years, have decreased over the Holocene and are at the lower end of global reef growth compilations, raising concerns about future sea-level rise impacts.
Manatees display diel trends in acoustic activity at two microhabitats in Belize
Antillean manatees (Trichechus manatus manatus) in Belize exhibit distinct diel trends in acoustic activity, with call production rates influenced by environmental factors and boat presence. A study analyzing 370 hours of hydrophone recordings from two resting holes off St. George's Caye revealed no significant differences in call frequency between sites but noted a decrease in tonal calls post-sunset and an increase during boat presence. These findings suggest that manatee activity patterns are shaped by their microhabitat, providing critical insights for conservation efforts in the Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System.
Reef‐wide and long‐term skeletal growth records of the mountainous star coral (Orbicella faveolata) from Belize barrier and atoll reefs (Central America)
A reef-wide analysis of the mountainous star coral (Orbicella faveolata) reveals that while skeletal density has increased across Belize's barrier and atoll reefs over the past two centuries, linear extension and calcification rates have declined. This trend suggests that denser skeletons do not offset the negative impacts of reduced growth and calcification in these corals. The study, based on 11 drill cores from 10 coral colonies spanning 17 to 186 years, also identified periodic skeletal growth cycles of 40–80 years, likely linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These findings highlight the value of coral skeletal records as archives for long-term oceanographic change and underscore the sensitivity of reef-building corals to environmental shifts.
Modeled Impacts of LULC and Climate Change Predictions on the Hydrologic Regime in Belize
Future water quality in Belize could improve due to projected decreases in precipitation from climate change, which may reduce runoff. However, conservation-focused land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios show a 28% lower increase in runoff compared to business-as-usual and development scenarios by 2090, indicating that land management strategies can mitigate negative impacts on water quality. The study integrated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP-6) climate scenarios with hydrologic modeling to estimate runoff as a proxy for water quality, revealing a positive relationship between precipitation and runoff. Southern watersheds are expected to experience greater decreases in rainfall and runoff than northern ones, highlighting regional variations in vulnerability.
Spatial Analysis of Environmental Factors Affecting Endangered and Invasive Fish Species on the Belize Barrier Reef
A spatial analysis reveals that rapid development and increased tourism in Belize are significantly altering the environmental conditions of the second-largest barrier reef system, with detrimental effects on endangered and invasive fish species. The study integrates species abundance data, sighting records, and environmental threat assessments to identify correlations between human activities—such as sedimentation from construction, overfishing, and maritime traffic—and changes in fish populations. Findings suggest that these factors are contributing to reef degradation, posing risks to the ecological balance of the Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System.
Assessment of reef and fisheries management in Belize using a social-ecological systems approach
Belize's implementation of Territorial User Rights for Fishing (TURFs), known as Managed Access (MA), has shown promise in addressing overfishing and promoting sustainable fisheries management. A study applying Ostrom’s social-ecological systems framework found that Belize's marine resource management is institutionally robust, with nested and decentralized enterprises that could overcome collective action problems often seen in common-pool resource systems. The research also revealed significant declines in coral cover and increases in macroalgae over 20 years, attributed to ocean warming and local human impacts. Interviews with fishers indicated a strong understanding of MA license requirements but highlighted enforcement as a key challenge. This comprehensive study provides science-based recommendations for balancing fisheries livelihoods with coral reef conservation in a changing world.
Spatial patterns of shark-inflicted injuries on coastal bottlenose dolphins in the Mesoamerican Reef System
Researchers have documented significant spatial variation in shark-inflicted injuries among coastal bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) across the Mesoamerican Reef System, with notable differences in wound prevalence between sites. Analysis of 533 photo-identified dolphins from Mexico, Belize, and Honduras revealed that 16 individuals bore scars consistent with attacks by large requiem sharks (Carcharhinidae), while two exhibited distinct crater wounds likely caused by cookiecutter sharks (Isistius spp.). Placencia (Mexico) and Ascención Bay recorded the highest injury prevalence, whereas Turneffe Atoll and Drowned Cayes (Belize) showed minimal impact. The findings suggest that predation risk may play a crucial role in shaping dolphin ecology in this region, highlighting the need for further investigation to understand these dynamics.
Convergence of DNA Methylation Profiles of the Reef Coral Porites astreoides in a Novel Environment
A novel study on the reef coral Porites astreoides reveals that DNA methylation profiles converge in response to environmental change, suggesting epigenetic mechanisms may play a role in phenotypic acclimatization. Researchers transplanted coral colonies from diverse habitats on the Belize Barrier Reef into a common garden and observed subtle but significant changes in methylation levels after one year. These changes were linked to genes involved in intracellular signaling, apoptosis, gene regulation, and epigenetic crosstalk. The study also found a positive relationship between genetic and epigenetic variation, indicating heritability of methylation. This provides evidence that DNA methylation could contribute to transgenerational acclimatization responses in corals, offering insights into their resilience under environmental stress.
Depth Influences Symbiodiniaceae Associations Among Montastraea cavernosa Corals on the Belize Barrier Reef
Research on the Belize Barrier Reef reveals that depth significantly influences the diversity and composition of Symbiodiniaceae taxa associated with the coral species Montastraea cavernosa. Shallow populations (10 and 16 m) exhibit greater diversity in Symbiodiniaceae ITS2 type profiles compared to deeper populations (25 and 35 m), following patterns similar to the coral host's population genetic structure. While nearly all Symbiodiniaceae taxa belong to the genus Cladocopium, some members appear to be shallow-specialized, not found in deeper populations. The study used high-throughput sequencing of the ITS2 region and SymPortal analysis framework to analyze previously-sampled M. cavernosa populations along a depth gradient.
Patterns of environmental variability influence coral‐associated bacterial and algal communities on the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef
Coral species exhibit distinct bacterial and algal symbiont communities influenced by environmental variability, with high variability potentially enhancing coral resilience. Research on two Siderastrea species from the Belize Barrier Reef revealed that bacterial diversity and structure vary significantly between hosts, driven in part by dominant groups like Deltaproteobacteria and Rhodospirillales. These dynamic core bacterial communities may facilitate rapid acclimatization to changing conditions. Notably, algal symbiont composition differed only at high thermal variability sites, suggesting differential environmental influences on microbial partners within the coral holobiont.
Unraveling hierarchical genetic structure in a marine metapopulation: A comparison of three high‐throughput genotyping approaches
High-throughput genotyping reveals subtle hierarchical genetic structures within the coral reef fish Elacatinus lori across the Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System, including previously undetected patterns of isolation by distance and differentiation between the barrier reef and Turneffe Atoll. The study compared three marker sets—2,418 SNPs, 89 microsatellites, and 57 nonrepetitive nuclear loci—finding that SNPs were most effective at resolving fine-scale structure. Sampling 1,129 individuals from 35 sites at ~10 km intervals demonstrated the power of high-resolution genetic data to uncover complex metapopulation dynamics in marine systems.
Use of public Earth observation data for tracking progress in sustainable management of coastal forest ecosystems in Belize, Central America
A study using public Earth observation data reveals that the Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System (BBRRS) experienced significantly lower mangrove loss compared to areas outside the reserve. Between 1996 and 2017, the BBRRS lost approximately 89 hectares of mangroves, while outside the BBRRS, the loss was 2703 hectares during the same period. Nationwide, Belize's overall mangrove cover declined by 5.4% over 36 years, from 76,250 hectares in 1980 to 72,169 hectares in 2017. The research highlights that almost 75% of the mangrove loss outside the BBRRS was concentrated in zones associated with tourism infrastructure. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of Earth observation systems in tracking progress toward Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Targets 15.2 and 14.2, providing a use case for monitoring changes in baseline data to support sustainable management of coastal ecosystems.
Land Cover Changes on Ambergris Caye, Belize: A Case Study of Unregulated Tourism Development
Between 2000 and 2017, Ambergris Caye, Belize—a key tourist destination within the UNESCO-listed Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System—experienced a significant 10.85% decline in vegetation cover, alongside a 39% increase in urban and barren land, driven by rapid, unregulated development. Using Landsat satellite imagery and unsupervised classification methods, researchers quantified these changes, revealing an annual forest loss rate of 0.67%. This baseline study highlights the environmental impacts of tourism-driven growth on tropical ecosystems, offering critical data for conservation and sustainable planning efforts in the region.
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