Climate warming as a driver of tundra shrubline advance

Tundra shrublines are advancing at measurable rates due to climate warming, with willow shrubs expanding upslope and increasing in cover by approximately 5% per decade. This finding, derived from a study in the Kluane Region of Yukon, Canada, suggests that shrubline advance is driven primarily by rising temperatures, particularly summer warmth influencing growth and winter conditions affecting recruitment. The research analyzed radial growth, age distributions, and field surveys across 14 sites, revealing low mortality and consistent recruitment patterns independent of elevation or aspect. These results align with broader trends in Arctic and alpine ecosystems, indicating that shrubline advance will persist if climate conditions remain favorable, though future variability between seasons could alter the trajectory of vegetation change.

Myers‐Smith, I. H., & Hik, D. S. (2017). Climate warming as a driver of tundra shrubline advance. Journal of Ecology, 106(2), 547–560. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12817