Publications
Reconstructing the peak flow of historical flood events using a hydraulic model: The city of Bath, United Kingdom
Including historical flood data can significantly increase estimates of extreme flood risk. A 1D hydraulic model of the River Avon in Bath, UK, revealed that incorporating pre-1960 flood events raised the 1-in-100-year design flood estimate by up to 30%. The study reconstructed peak flows for 16 historical events using archival cross-sections, technical drawings, and epigraphic marks, then calibrated the model against two known floods (1947 and 1960). By extending the annual maximum flow series back to 1866, researchers demonstrated how long-term flood frequency analysis can improve modern risk assessments. This approach highlights the importance of historical records in refining flood defense planning.
Reconstructing a hydraulic model for historic flood levels in the city of Bath, United Kingdom
A hydraulic model reconstructing historic flood levels in Bath, UK, demonstrates that documentary evidence of past floods can significantly reduce uncertainty in contemporary flood risk assessments. The study, focusing on the River Avon, leveraged a rich record of 19th-century to present-day flood marks, maps, photographs, and newspaper articles to numerically reconstruct the 1960 flood event—a catalyst for Bath's current flood protection scheme. By comparing this model with a simple Manning equation approach, researchers found that hydraulic modeling offers more accurate estimates of design flood flows, thereby improving future risk predictions. Sensitivity analyses further assessed uncertainties in water levels during extreme events, highlighting the potential of historical data to enhance flood defense strategies.
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